British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak connects with farmers at a campaign event on a farm near Barnstaple in North Devon on June 18. Recent polls indicate that Sunak's party is facing a significant potential defeat in the upcoming July 4 election.
"People are angry," said Carole Jones, a local councilor in Dorset, southern England. "They are distrustful of all politicians." Jones, who runs a "social supermarket" helping nearly 400 families, hears these frustrations often. This service, similar to a food bank, highlights the struggles many face, even in wealthy areas like Sandbanks's "Millionaires Row."
Gordon Brown, the last Labour prime minister, noted that when the Conservatives took power in 2010, there were 35 food banks in the UK. Now there are 2,600. "There is a strong dislike of the Westminster bubble," Jones said, referring to the UK Parliament. Even as a Conservative, Jones believes "it's time for a change" and wants the party to reset.
Inflation is down, and the economy is growing, but will the cost-of-living crisis sink Rishi Sunak in the upcoming election? Five years ago, the Conservatives were thriving, thanks to Boris Johnson's popularity, who led them to their biggest win since 1987. But since then, the party has seen two more prime ministers, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, and now enters this election as the underdog.
Seventy-five Conservative MPs are stepping down, including high-profile figures like former PM Theresa May and former foreign secretary Dominic Raab. Polls show the opposition Labour Party leading by about 20 points, a gap that has remained steady for two years.
Barring a major data error or unexpected turn of events, the Conservatives face what could be their worst electoral defeat in 200 years. Sunak insists the UK's economic outlook is improving, but the Institute for Fiscal Studies attributes slow growth to low investment, policy mistakes, political instability, and Brexit.
During the six-week campaign, former prime minister David Cameron expressed optimism about winning the election. However, Labour's David Lammy countered, saying, "Britain feels more divided than at any other time that I can remember."
Disenchanted voters often say, "They've had 14 years." According to Prof. Peter Sloman of the University of Cambridge, as many as half the voters have turned away from the Conservatives, with some supporting Labour, Reform, or the Liberal Democrats. Nigel Farage's Reform Party aims to split the Conservative vote by pledging to freeze non-essential immigration. The Liberal Democrats, led by Sir Ed Davey, are on track for their best result since 2010, possibly becoming the main opposition party.
Sunak gambled on calling this early election, hoping better economic data would win voters. However, many, like Jeff Graham from northwest London, are disillusioned with politicians' inability to relate to ordinary people. Scandals like "Partygate" and MPs watching pornography in Parliament have damaged the Conservatives' reputation.
Brits want a functional government, according to Matt Bebb, a teacher in Liverpool, who notes there have been 10 education secretaries in the past 14 years. "People have seen the chaos of government," he said.
The final straw may have been when bookmakers noticed a spike in bets on a July election date, leading to an investigation into possible insider information use. Calicia Tavernier, a student at Leicester University, said, "We are represented by politicians who have become political celebrities, where accountability has been curtailed, and the people are no longer prioritized." She believes this election will show that British voters want "a functional government."
The Conservatives are warning of a "dangerous Labour supermajority" as the campaign closes, but it seems many British voters are ready for Labour Leader Sir Keir Starmer's one-word mantra: "Change."
