An illustration depicts a small asteroid swiftly passing by Earth. Photo: Space.com
The European Space Agency (ESA) is keeping a close eye on a newly discovered asteroid named 2024 YR4, which could potentially impact Earth in 2032. While the chance of impact is extremely low, ESA and international space organizations are monitoring its trajectory closely.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Chile. Immediately after its discovery, automated asteroid warning systems flagged it as a possible threat, with a very small chance of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. The asteroid is estimated to be between 40 to 100 meters wide, a size that could cause significant local damage if it were to strike Earth, though such impacts occur on average only once every few thousand years.
Despite the initial alarm, astronomers, including teams from ESA, NASA, and other international observatories, have been closely observing the asteroid to better understand its size and path. As of January 29, 2025, the probability of impact has been reduced to 1.2%, a figure that aligns with independent calculations from NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and NEODyS. Despite this, the asteroid is still classified as a Level 3 risk on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, meaning it warrants attention but does not pose an immediate threat.
Asteroid 2024 YR4’s orbit around the Sun is highly elliptical, which makes it difficult to predict its path with certainty. Currently, it is moving away from Earth in a straight line, which complicates the task of tracking its trajectory. In the coming months, the asteroid will begin to fade from view as it moves further away, making it harder to gather more data. However, ESA plans to use increasingly advanced telescopes, such as the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope in Chile, to monitor the asteroid as closely as possible. If the asteroid remains unobservable for a period, it could be years before a clearer picture of its future path emerges, with the next major observation set for 2028.
Meanwhile, two UN-endorsed groups have been activated to prepare for potential threats. The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), led by NASA, coordinates global efforts to track and study asteroids. IAWN is developing strategies to help governments prepare for the consequences of a possible impact. ESA is working closely with IAWN and providing regular updates on the risk assessment.
The Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), chaired by ESA, is another key group involved in asteroid risk management. SMPAG is tasked with sharing information internationally, conducting research on asteroid threats, and coordinating planning for potential mitigation strategies. The group will meet in Vienna next week to evaluate the situation and, if necessary, recommend actions to the UN.
Although asteroid 2024 YR4’s chances of hitting Earth are minimal, it serves as a reminder of the potential hazards posed by near-Earth objects. As space agencies work together to improve asteroid detection and monitoring technologies, the world is becoming more prepared to address the threat, should one arise.
