Chinese fighter planes conduct a joint combat training exercise around Taiwan on August 7, 2022. (AP Photo)
China has resumed sending military aircraft toward Taiwan after a mysterious pause of nearly two weeks, reigniting tensions ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s planned visit to Beijing.
Taiwan’s defence ministry said Sunday that China dispatched 26 aircraft toward the island, with 16 entering Taiwan’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ). The flights mark a return to the aerial pressure Beijing has frequently used against the self-ruled island.
The sudden shift has puzzled officials and analysts, particularly as it comes just days before Trump’s expected visit to China and amid discussions about potential U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.
A Pause That Raised Questions
China considers Taiwan a breakaway province and has long pledged to reunify the island with the mainland, by force if necessary. In recent years, Beijing has intensified pressure through frequent warplane incursions and large military drills simulating attacks on the island.
But the recent pause broke that pattern.
Between Feb. 28 and March 9, China sent only two aircraft near Taiwan in one instance — a sharp drop compared with the same period last year, when 86 aircraft were detected near the island.
The lull came shortly after China conducted its largest-ever military drills around Taiwan in late December, simulating operations to blockade and subdue the island.
Taiwan Says Threat Never Disappeared
Taiwanese Defence Minister Wellington Koo cautioned against interpreting the temporary drop in aircraft activity as a reduction in threat.
Speaking to The Wall Street Journal, Koo noted that Chinese naval vessels remained active near Taiwan even during the pause in aerial missions.
“We cannot rely on a single indicator like the absence of aircraft,” he said, adding that Chinese military forces still appear to be surrounding the island on a daily basis.
Taiwan’s military, he stressed, remains vigilant.
Analysts Offer Competing Theories
The shifting pattern has prompted several theories about Beijing’s intentions.
Some analysts believe China may have deliberately reduced aerial activity to create the appearance of a calmer security environment. Such a move could encourage the United States to reduce its focus on Taiwan and the wider Indo-Pacific region.
Others suggest the pause might signal Beijing’s willingness to scale back provocations temporarily as it pursues diplomatic or economic concessions from Washington.
China and the United States are currently holding trade talks and working to formalize the trade truce announced last year.
Ben Lewis of PLATracker, which tracks Chinese military activity, told the Journal that the pause could be linked to reports that Washington delayed a major arms package for Taiwan.
“It is a realistic possibility that there is a quid pro quo regarding creating positive conditions for a productive dialogue,” Lewis said.
Uncertainty Over Beijing’s Intentions
Still, some experts say the lack of clear explanation is what worries them most.
Drew Thompson, a former Pentagon official responsible for China and Taiwan policy, said analysts have plenty of theories but little clarity.
“Everybody has a theory, but nobody has an answer,” Thompson said.
“What concerns me is we don’t know what it means. It’s perpetual threats without communication, without dialogue, without thresholds.”
For now, Taiwan says it will remain on high alert as Chinese aircraft once again circle the island.
