This image, taken by the Akatsuki probe from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, shows Venus in May 2016. The photo was shared by researcher Jane Greaves. (J. Greaves/Cardiff University/JAXA via AP)
A Soviet-era spacecraft, originally designed to land on Venus in the 1970s, is expected to fall back to Earth soon. Experts are tracking its return, but it's still unclear exactly where it will land and how much of the spacecraft will survive reentry.
Failed Mission Turned Long Journey
The spacecraft, named Kosmos 482, was launched in 1972 as part of the Soviet Union's Venus exploration mission. However, it never made it past Earth's orbit because of a rocket malfunction. Over the years, most of the spacecraft fell back to Earth, but its landing capsule, a spherical object about three feet wide, continued to orbit the planet. For over 50 years, this capsule has been slowly descending through space.
Now, after more than five decades in orbit, the spacecraft is expected to reenter Earth's atmosphere around May 10, according to Dutch scientist Marco Langbroek. He predicts the spacecraft will crash into Earth at a speed of 150 mph (242 km/h) if it stays intact.
Risks and Safety Concerns
Despite the spacecraft's return, Langbroek suggests that the risk to people is low. He compares the risk of it hitting someone to the chance of being struck by lightning. He explained, “While not without risk, we should not be too worried. The chance of it actually hitting something or someone is small.”
However, the spacecraft’s impact could still be dangerous if it survives reentry. Experts are unsure whether the spacecraft will burn up during descent. Langbroek believes the spacecraft was built to endure Venus’s hot atmosphere, which makes it more likely to survive reentry into Earth’s atmosphere.
The heat shield may or may not be effective after so many years. If it fails, the spacecraft will burn up before it hits the ground. If the shield works, it could land intact, meaning a half-ton metal object could fall from the sky.
Where Will It Land?
Experts have not pinpointed exactly where the spacecraft will land. It could reenter anywhere between 51.7 degrees north and south latitude, covering a vast area from London and Edmonton in Canada down to South America's Cape Horn. However, since much of Earth’s surface is covered by oceans, Langbroek believes it is most likely to land in the water.
What Happens Next?
Though the spacecraft's reentry presents some uncertainty, the chances of major damage or injury are low. Experts will continue to track the spacecraft until it reaches Earth’s atmosphere.
As the spacecraft approaches Earth, space debris-tracking experts will continue to monitor its descent, trying to predict where it will land. The spacecraft’s unusual journey, beginning in the 1970s, will soon come to an end, but its final destination remains a mystery.
