Wheat was gathered from fields close to Cremona, Alberta, on September 19, 2023. The Canadian Press
Canada is poised to become the world's third-largest wheat exporter for the second consecutive year, with crop production in its prairie provinces continuing to rise. Recent international data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows that Canada has surpassed Australia to secure the third-place position for the 2023-2024 crop year, and it is expected to maintain this ranking for 2024-2025 as well.
Currently, Canada ranks behind only Russia and the European Union in terms of wheat export volumes. According to a recent report by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, production of major field crops in Canada is projected to increase by 1.8 percent compared to the previous year, marking a 2.4 percent rise above the average of the past five years. These estimates reflect the recent harvest, which is mostly completed, and highlight the improved yields in Western Canada, where drought conditions were not as severe as the previous year.
Interestingly, Canada managed to maintain its third-place ranking in wheat production last year despite experiencing drought conditions. This was partly due to Australian farmers facing their own weather-related difficulties that impacted their crop yields. In the 2023-2024 crop year, Canada exported nearly 21.8 megatonnes of wheat to 65 countries, with the largest markets being China, Indonesia, Japan, Bangladesh, and the United States.
Justin Shepherd, an economist with Farm Credit Canada, noted that global rankings can change annually based on the weather patterns affecting different regions. However, Canada has been steadily increasing its wheat export volumes thanks to advancements in agricultural research and crop genetics. He remarked, “We did see a much smaller wheat crop to export in 2021 due to a fairly significant drought on the prairies that year. But overall, as long as Canada is able to grow an average or above-average crop, we have seen exports grow over time.”
The demand for wheat is on the rise globally. The USDA has projected a 0.6 percent increase in worldwide wheat consumption for 2024-2025, driven by heightened demand from North America, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. Specifically, durum wheat, which is used to produce pasta and is cultivated in Canada’s southern prairie provinces, is experiencing strong demand from Europe and North Africa. The Canadian Grain Commission reports that durum exports through the country’s licensed elevator system are currently running about 25 percent higher than last year’s figures.
However, wheat farming faces challenges. Wheat requires more water than other staple crops like maize, rice, and soy, making it vulnerable to droughts. The World Resources Institute estimates that by 2040, nearly three-quarters of global wheat production could be threatened by climate change and water shortages.
Despite these challenges, Stewart Oke, a farmer in central Alberta and a director of Alberta Grains, highlighted that Canada continues to invest in crop research and development, which has enabled farmers to boost their yields. He stated, “In Canada we’ve worked really hard on our wheat genetics to withstand some of the drought stress that maybe previous varieties of wheat didn’t have.”
Oke also pointed out that Canadian wheat exporters benefit from a lower Canadian dollar, making the country’s agricultural products more appealing to international buyers. He added, “Not only are they getting the best wheat in the world, but they’re able to buy it at a bit of an exchange deficit, which just makes it more affordable for those buyers.”
While agriculture is heavily influenced by weather conditions, Oke expressed optimism about Canada's potential to maintain its position in global wheat exports. He concluded, “It’s certainly a feather in Canada’s cap – particularly Western Canada – to move into that third spot. Both from a producer level, but also as an export market, we want to hold that third position.”
