Drones carry a Russian (left) and Belarus National flag, during the joint Russian-Belarussian military drills at a training ground near Berysaw, Belarus, Monday, September 15, 2025.
Russia has raised alarm across Europe with massive military drills involving both conventional and nuclear capabilities. The joint exercises with Belarus, called Zapad 2025, have triggered fears among NATO members, particularly Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania.
The maneuvers came amid rising tensions, as Russian drones breached Polish airspace and NATO responded with stronger defenses. The timing of these events, following a failed U.S.-Russia summit, has only fueled concerns of a wider conflict.
NATO on Edge as Russian Drones Cross Borders
On September 10, just days before Zapad 2025 began, nearly 20 Russian drones entered Polish airspace. Moscow denied targeting Poland, claiming the drones drifted off course after Ukrainian jamming. But Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called it a deliberate “provocation” and warned it brought Europe closer to open conflict than at any time since World War II.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte branded the incident “reckless.” He announced the launch of Eastern Sentry, a new initiative to strengthen air defenses along NATO’s eastern flank. Rutte also confirmed similar drone violations in Romania, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
Zapad 2025: Show of Strength
The Russian drills feature nuclear-capable bombers, warships, hypersonic weapons, and thousands of troops. They simulate coordinated responses to enemy attacks, including scenarios for nuclear use. Russia’s new intermediate-range ballistic missile, the Oreshnik, was highlighted as a central element of the exercise.
Putin first used the Oreshnik in Ukraine in late 2024. Since then, he has repeatedly warned that it could strike NATO allies supporting Kyiv. The missile is said to carry multiple warheads, travel at Mach 10, and evade interception. Russian state media claims it could hit Poland in 11 minutes and NATO headquarters in Brussels in 17.
Belarus’ Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin confirmed that Zapad 2025 included planning for nuclear use and the Oreshnik. While it’s unclear if the missile was physically deployed during drills, Russia confirmed production has already begun.
Nuclear Doctrine and Belarus’ Role
One year ago, Putin revised Russia’s nuclear doctrine. It now states that any conventional attack on Russia, supported by a nuclear power, will be considered a joint nuclear threat. The revision significantly lowers the threshold for potential nuclear use.
This doctrine also extends Russia’s nuclear shield to Belarus. Moscow claims it has already stationed tactical nuclear weapons there and plans to deploy the Oreshnik missiles later this year.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has previously said his country holds several dozen Russian tactical nuclear weapons. While Moscow insists it retains control, conflicting statements from both sides raise questions about who ultimately decides their use.
Echoes of the Cold War
Military analysts warn that Belarus is becoming a “nuclear balcony” over the West, giving Russia a forward position to threaten NATO states and Ukraine. Deploying Oreshnik missiles and tactical nuclear weapons there recalls Soviet-era strategies when Belarus hosted much of the USSR’s intermediate-range arsenal.
During the Cold War, Belarus held over half of the Soviet Union’s land-based nuclear missiles. Many storage sites were hidden in forests and heavily fortified. Analysts believe some of these sites are now being restored to house modern Russian warheads.
“The weapons’ presence sends a signal even if unused,” said Andrey Baklitskiy of the UN Institute for Disarmament Research. Minsk-based analyst Alexander Alesin added that Belarus’ role is once again that of a nuclear fortress, projecting power deep into Europe.
A Growing Confrontation
As Russia’s war in Ukraine enters its fourth year, Zapad 2025 demonstrates Moscow’s determination to maintain pressure on NATO. The combination of advanced missiles, nuclear doctrine changes, and drone provocations has left Europe uneasy.
For NATO, the message is clear. Russia wants to remind the alliance that no member is truly safe, from Estonia to Spain. And with Belarus now firmly under Moscow’s nuclear umbrella, the continent faces a renewed Cold War-style standoff.
