Republicans’ outlook on the direction of the country has soured dramatically, according to a new AP-NORC poll that was conducted shortly after the assassination last week of conservative activist Charlie Kirk.
Republicans’ confidence in the country’s path has taken a sharp downturn, according to a new AP-NORC poll conducted shortly after the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk. The survey reveals a dramatic change in mood among GOP supporters, especially women and younger voters.
Republican Optimism Declines Sharply
In June, 70% of Republicans believed the U.S. was moving in the right direction. Today, only about half agree. The decline is even more pronounced among women in the GOP and members under 45. Among younger Republicans, 61% now say the country is headed in the wrong direction—a 30-point jump since June.
Overall, just one in four Americans currently believes the nation is on the right track. Democrats and independents show little change in sentiment, but the Republican dip is unusually steep.
Political Violence Fuels Concern
The shift comes after a series of violent political attacks. Charlie Kirk, founder of Turning Point USA, was shot dead during an outdoor event in Utah on September 10. Just months earlier, Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman, a Democrat, and her husband were killed in their home in what officials described as targeted political violence.
High-profile incidents of violence have heightened Republican worries about safety, unity, and stability. Trump himself survived an assassination attempt last year at a rally in Pennsylvania. These events, combined with a toxic political climate, appear to be fueling anxiety.
Voices From the GOP
Interviews with Republicans highlight the tension between political violence and economic stress.
Chris Bahr, a 42-year-old from Houston, said violence has shifted from a background concern to a central fear. “Two weeks ago, I wouldn’t have listed it as my main worry. Now, it’s at the top,” he explained.
Truck driver Mustafa Robinson from Delaware County echoed economic frustrations alongside political unease. “You think you’re on track with work and career, but prices keep climbing. And instead of unity, we’re seeing division and shootings. That’s exhausting,” he said.
Others, like Minnesota Republican Jeremy Gieske, see a deeper cultural fracture. “We’re at each other’s throats. This political poison is everywhere. The question is whether Kirk’s death sparks more unrest,” he added.
Women and Younger Republicans Shift Most
The poll shows Republican women’s perspective has shifted almost as dramatically as younger voters’. In June, just 27% of GOP women said the country was headed in the wrong direction. That number has now soared to three-quarters. Among men, the figure rose from 30% to 56%.
The depth of this decline rivals major historic moments, such as the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic and the aftermath of Trump’s 2020 election loss.
Economic Strain Adds to Unease
For many Republicans, inflation, jobs, and living costs remain just as worrying as violence. Joclyn Yurchak, a warehouse worker in Pennsylvania, cited the lack of good jobs, rising commutes, immigration concerns, and drug activity in her community.
“It’s not just politics—it’s everything. There’s so much crime and no respect anymore. The country feels like it’s unraveling,” she said.
A Nation Divided
Concerns about political violence aren’t new. An AP-NORC survey last year found that 42% of Americans were deeply worried about violence against political figures or election officials.
But the latest numbers underscore how recent events, combined with economic pressures, have shaken Republican confidence more severely than in recent years.
The poll reflects a broader unease—Americans fear the country is moving in the wrong direction. And for Republicans, the combination of political bloodshed, division, and rising costs has deepened that sense of crisis.
