Prime Minister Mark Carney and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. Getty Images
With a possible federal election just days away, a new national poll shows the Liberals slightly ahead of the Conservatives. According to the survey, 42% of Canadians plan to vote for Mark Carney’s Liberals, while 39% support Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives.
This marks a major comeback for the Liberals, whose support had fallen sharply over the past year. The Conservatives previously held a strong lead, making a Liberal defeat seem almost certain. However, the resignation of Justin Trudeau in January, Carney’s rise to Liberal leader, and growing patriotism following U.S. annexation threats have helped the Liberals regain ground.
Andrew Enns, vice-president of the polling company, called it “a remarkable comeback.” He believes the recent surge is largely due to the Liberal Party uniting progressive voters, including many who previously supported the NDP.
The poll shows the NDP, led by Jagmeet Singh, trailing far behind with only 9% support. The Bloc Québécois holds 5% of the national vote.
The survey also reveals Poilievre’s growing unpopularity. Nearly half of Canadians (49%) have a negative view of the Conservative leader, while 39% see him positively. In contrast, Carney has a 46% approval rating, with only 28% viewing him unfavorably. However, 28% of Canadians say they don’t know much about Carney, making him a potential target for attack ads.
The poll also asked who Canadians think is best suited to handle key issues. On the economy, 45% trust Carney, while 31% prefer Poilievre. When it comes to dealing with U.S. President Donald Trump, 42% favor Carney, compared to 29% for Poilievre. On climate change, Carney is the clear favorite, with 40% support versus Poilievre’s 13%.
However, Poilievre has a slight edge on affordability, with 32% believing he can ease the cost of living, compared to 37% for Carney. The Conservative leader is also seen as stronger on government spending cuts (36% to Carney’s 32%) and growing the Canadian military (33% versus 26%).
Regionally, the Liberals dominate Atlantic Canada, with 51% of voters supporting them, while 32% back the Conservatives. In Quebec, the Liberals lead with 40%, followed by the Bloc Québécois at 24% and the Conservatives at 23%.
In Ontario, the Liberals hold a narrow two-point lead, with 44% support compared to the Conservatives’ 42%. The NDP lags far behind at 9%.
The Conservatives still dominate in the Prairies. In Manitoba and Saskatchewan, 52% back the Conservatives, while 40% support the Liberals. In Alberta, the Conservatives hold 55% support, far ahead of the Liberals at 31%.
In British Columbia, the Liberals lead with 46%, while the Conservatives have 37%. The NDP trails with just 13%.
The poll also shows a gender divide. Among men, 43% support the Conservatives, while 40% back the Liberals. However, 45% of women support the Liberals, compared to 34% for the Conservatives.
The survey also reveals the Conservatives have lost their once-dominant lead among younger voters. In September 2024, 47% of 18-34 year-olds planned to vote Conservative, compared to 14% for the Liberals. Now, both parties are tied at 38%. Among those aged 35-54, the Conservatives lead by six points, while the Liberals dominate among those over 55.
The poll was conducted online between March 14 and March 16, with 1,568 respondents. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.47%.
