Phil's forecast of six more weeks of winter seems unlikely in a world that's getting warmer. AP Photo
Every year on February 2, Groundhog Day, people gather at Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, to watch the famous groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil, make his weather prediction. According to tradition, if Phil sees his shadow, it means six more weeks of winter. If he doesn’t see his shadow, an early spring is on the way.
This year, when Phil was pulled from his cozy burrow, he saw his shadow, which means he predicts six more weeks of winter. However, while this tradition is widely followed, the reality is that winter will officially end on March 20, 2025, at 5:01 a.m. ET, when the spring equinox arrives, regardless of Phil’s prediction. But weather doesn’t always follow the expected timeline, and neither does Phil.
Phil has been making predictions since the late 1800s, but his accuracy is questionable. Since 2005, Phil has only been right about 35% of the time, according to data analyzed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). While his prediction for an early spring in 2024 turned out to be correct, it’s not always the case. February 2024 was the third warmest on record for the continental United States, and March was also warmer than usual, according to NOAA.
When it comes to accurate weather forecasts, experts from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center provide more reliable predictions. These meteorologists produce long-term forecasts for temperature and precipitation across the U.S. For February, they expect above-average temperatures in parts of the Rockies, the South, and much of the East, potentially signaling an early spring. In contrast, below-average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Midwest could indicate that winter will continue for a while. These trends are expected to last through early spring.
This winter has already been quite cold, especially for the eastern U.S., where brutal cold fronts have brought freezing temperatures. The presidential inauguration was the coldest in 40 years, and a historic snowstorm hit the Gulf Coast. Many cities east of the Mississippi River are experiencing one of the 10 coldest winters on record.
Meanwhile, the western U.S. has seen much warmer temperatures, following the warmest fall on record for the lower 48 states. Cities like Phoenix, Las Vegas, and San Francisco are experiencing one of their 10 warmest winters. This warming trend isn’t just a coincidence. Winter has become the fastest-warming season in nearly 75% of the U.S. due to rising global temperatures, caused by fossil fuel pollution.
Given this warming trend, Phil’s prediction of six more weeks of winter is increasingly unlikely in a world where temperatures are rising. Still, the tradition remains a fun way for people to connect with the changing seasons, even if it’s not the most accurate forecast.
