Vietnam ends two-child policy to improve birth rates and aging population. In the image, Children hold Vietnam’s and France’s flags at the welcome ceremony for the French President in Hanoi. Monday, May 26, 2025. AP Photo
Vietnam has officially abolished its decades-old two-child policy, aiming to address a steep decline in birth rates and the growing pressures of an aging population. The National Assembly passed the change on Tuesday, with state-run Vietnam News Agency confirming the move on Wednesday.
A Major Shift in Two-Child Policy
The two-child policy had been in place since 1988. It was initially introduced to reduce strain on limited national resources after years of war and during a period of economic transition. The rule was especially strict for Communist Party members, who risked missing promotions or bonuses if they had more than two children.
But now, with fertility rates dropping fast, the government has shifted course.
Birth Rates Dropping Year After Year
Vietnam's fertility rate was just above replacement level in 2021, at 2.11 children per woman. But that number has since slid steadily — to 2.01 in 2022, 1.96 in 2023, and 1.91 in 2024. Ho Chi Minh City, the country’s economic engine, saw an even sharper drop — just 1.39 children per woman this year.
This trend has raised alarms among economists and demographers alike.
“We Just Can’t Afford More Kids”
Nguyen Thu Linh, a 37-year-old marketing manager from Hanoi, says finances were a key reason she and her husband decided to stop at one child.
“We want to give our son the best life possible,” she explained. “But raising another child would be too demanding — financially and emotionally.”
Many urban families share this sentiment, citing the rising costs of housing, education, and childcare as major deterrents to having more children.
A Country at a Demographic Crossroads
Vietnam’s population has grown from 62 million in 1988 to over 100 million in 2023. But the working-age population is nearing its peak.
The country is currently in its “golden population” period, where the number of working individuals outweighs dependents. This window began in 2007 and is projected to close by 2039. After that, the number of elderly people will grow rapidly, increasing the burden on the economy and healthcare systems.
By 2054, the overall population could begin to shrink.
Government Incentives and Support
Vietnam has introduced several family-friendly policies in recent years. Women who have two children before turning 35 in Ho Chi Minh City are offered cash incentives of around $120. Nationally, parents receive six months of paid maternity leave, free healthcare for kids under six, and free public education up to the age of 15 — soon extending to high school.
Despite these efforts, fertility continues to fall.
A Skewed Gender Balance
The country also faces an unbalanced sex ratio. Cultural preferences for sons have led to a surge in sex-selective practices, especially in the northern Red River Delta region.
Although doctors are banned from revealing a baby’s sex before birth, reports suggest some still use coded language. In response, the health ministry has proposed increasing fines for sex-selective abortions to $3,800.
Following Regional Trends
Vietnam now joins other Asian countries trying to reverse demographic decline. China, once known for its one-child policy, has also relaxed its rules to little effect. Japan, South Korea, and Singapore are facing similar struggles, although they are far more developed economically.
Vietnam’s new move marks a critical step — but whether it will boost birth rates remains to be seen.
