Donald Trump plans to host his election night event on November 5, 2024, at the Palm Beach County Convention Center in Florida, which is close to his Mar-a-Lago residence. This venue is familiar ground for Trump, as he has previously held campaign rallies there.
Thursday is set to be a pivotal day for Germany's political scene as Friedrich Merz, the leader of the opposition Christian Democratic Union (CDU), is scheduled to address the nation in a press conference. His statement will be in response to Chancellor Olaf Scholz's call for support to pass the national budget and ramp up military spending.
The political turbulence comes in the wake of a major shakeup: Scholz's dismissal of Finance Minister Christian Lindner from the Free Democrats (FDP) following persistent disagreements over budget issues. This decision has led to the collapse of Germany's three-party coalition, setting the stage for an early general election likely to take place next year.
This upheaval couldn’t come at a more fragile time for Europe. On Wednesday, financial markets faced the unsettling possibility of a Republican victory in the U.S., led by Donald Trump. Trump has suggested sweeping tariffs of 10% on European imports, which could be disastrous for Germany, a nation deeply reliant on exports to the U.S. He has also hinted at even heftier taxes on car imports, a key sector for Germany’s economy.
European stocks reflected the anxiety; the STOXX 600 dropped by 0.54%, and Germany's DAX fell by 1.13%. The uncertainty has left markets jittery as they brace for political and economic aftershocks that could impact the entire region.
But politics won’t be the only focus on Thursday. Economic watchers will be keenly eyeing decisions from major central banks. The U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England (BoE), Sweden’s Riksbank, and Norway’s central bank are all set to announce their rate decisions. Expectations point to a quarter-point rate cut by the Fed, but the spotlight will be on Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks about possible inflation risks due to Trump's proposed tariffs and restrictive immigration policies.
The BoE is also anticipated to lower rates by a quarter point. However, analysts are eager to hear how policymakers believe the U.K.'s new budget will affect inflation. In Sweden, most analysts predict the Riksbank will cut rates by half a point, while the Norges Bank is expected to maintain its current rate.
Additionally, the European Central Bank (ECB) will be in the spotlight as several of its key figures are scheduled to speak. Notably, Isabel Schnabel, a known advocate for cautious rate cuts, will be making statements. ECB’s chief economist Philip Lane will speak in Athens, while Klaas Knot, the head of the Dutch central bank, will be addressing students at the University of Amsterdam. Meanwhile, board member Frank Elderson will participate in a panel discussion in Brussels.
Germany's economic pulse will also be checked on Thursday with the release of trade and industrial output data for September. Meanwhile, the euro zone’s retail sales figures and the U.K.’s Halifax house price index for October will add to the day’s significant data releases.
