About 1.15 million Canadians are expected to renew their mortgages in 2026, according to CMHC. Getty Images
Canadian homeowners heading into 2026 are entering a calmer mortgage landscape after years of rate turbulence. However, that stability will not feel the same for everyone. The financial impact will depend heavily on whether borrowers hold fixed- or variable-rate mortgages, especially as a major renewal wave approaches.
Roughly 1.15 million mortgages are set to renew in 2026, according to national housing data. Many of these loans were locked in during the pandemic, when interest rates were historically low. For some households, the reset could bring a sharp adjustment.
Here’s how mortgage trends are expected to shape the year ahead.
Variable Rates Likely To Remain Steady
Borrowers with variable-rate mortgages may finally experience a period of predictability. Canada’s central bank has signalled that its current policy rate is appropriate for existing economic conditions, suggesting limited movement ahead.
Strong employment figures and resilient economic growth reduce the likelihood of further rate cuts or hikes. As long as inflation remains under control, variable-rate holders are expected to see little change in their monthly payments throughout 2026.
Variable Mortgages Regain Appeal
After falling out of favor during the rate-hike cycle, variable-rate mortgages are becoming attractive again. Current market conditions show variable rates sitting noticeably below comparable fixed options.
That pricing gap could grow if bond yields remain elevated, keeping fixed rates higher for longer. Borrower behavior already reflects this shift, with rising interest in variable-rate products after several cautious years.
Fixed-Rate Renewals Face Sharper Increases
The biggest strain is expected to hit fixed-rate borrowers coming off ultra-low pandemic-era deals. Many locked in five-year terms near record lows between 2020 and 2021.
At renewal, those borrowers could face substantial increases in monthly payments, even with today’s more moderate rates. In many cases, housing costs could rise by more than 25 per cent, adding thousands of dollars annually to household expenses.
Variable-Rate Renewals Bring Smaller Jumps
Borrowers who chose variable rates during the pandemic are expected to face far milder increases at renewal. While their payments rose during the aggressive tightening cycle, much of that adjustment has already been absorbed.
When renewing in 2026, variable-rate holders are likely to see only modest payment increases, often amounting to a few hundred dollars a year rather than several thousand. Over time, this difference could significantly affect household affordability.
Housing Market Likely To Stay Quiet
Despite more than a year of interest rate cuts, Canada’s housing market remains subdued. Sales activity and average prices have barely shifted since early 2024.
Economic uncertainty, affordability concerns, and global trade tensions continue to keep many buyers on the sidelines. Inventory has been building in several major cities, tilting conditions toward buyers but failing to spark a strong rebound.
With borrowing costs expected to remain stable rather than fall sharply, demand is unlikely to surge in 2026. However, motivated buyers may benefit from increased choice and improved negotiating power.
What Borrowers Should Prepare For
While 2026 promises relief from volatility, it won’t be painless. Variable-rate borrowers are positioned to benefit most from stability, while fixed-rate holders face tougher renewals. As millions reset their mortgages, early planning, budgeting, and rate comparisons will be crucial to navigating the next phase of Canada’s housing market.
