An artist's illustration of how a major asteroid impact on the Moon could appear. INDEPENDENT
A massive asteroid initially predicted to have a higher chance of hitting Earth, might instead collide with the Moon, according to new calculations.
NASA’s Centre for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) has been monitoring asteroid 2024 YR4, which was discovered on December 27, 2024. Initially, scientists estimated its chances of striking Earth in 2032 at about 1%. However, recent studies have doubled that probability to 2.3%. Despite this, new calculations by University of Arizona astronomer David Rankin suggest there is also a 0.3% chance the asteroid could crash into the Moon instead.
The asteroid is about 90 meters wide, and if it impacts the Moon, it could create a massive crater hundreds of meters wide. Since the Moon lacks an atmosphere to slow down incoming objects, the impact could send debris flying into space. Some of this debris might even reach Earth, but scientists believe it is unlikely to pose any significant danger.
Dr. Rankin explained that while there is a possibility of lunar debris falling to Earth, it is unlikely to cause serious harm. However, there is still some uncertainty about the asteroid’s exact path, and further observations will be needed to refine predictions.
NASA is continuing to track 2024 YR4 and expects that its chances of striking Earth may decrease as more data becomes available. The agency noted that many asteroids initially thought to be risky have later been ruled out as more accurate calculations were made.
Around the world, space agencies are working on ways to prevent potentially dangerous asteroids from hitting Earth. Some experimental ideas include crashing a spacecraft into an asteroid to push it off course or using nuclear explosions to alter its path.
China has recently joined the global efforts in planetary defence. The country has announced job openings for researchers specializing in asteroid tracking and defence. According to Li Mingtao, a researcher at China’s National Space Science Centre, China aims to play a key role in protecting Earth from asteroid threats.
Last year, China revealed a plan to send a spacecraft to observe and redirect an asteroid by 2030. Meanwhile, NASA is waiting for the asteroid’s next approach in 2028, when scientists hope to gather more data and make more accurate predictions about its potential risk in 2032.
