After experiencing almost a year and a half of La Niña weather, Canada could soon face a super El Niño, which might bring milder winters and an increase in storms. CTV
After almost a year and a half of La Niña weather, Canadians could soon face a completely different weather pattern—an intense "super" El Niño. This shift, according to climate scientists, could arrive later this year, possibly in the summer or fall.
Kent Moore, a professor of atmospheric physics at the University of Toronto, shared his insights during an interview on CTV Your Morning. He explained that while it’s challenging to predict weather events of such magnitude, there’s a 50 percent chance that a super El Niño will occur in 2026.
"As the weeks and months go by, we'll get better guidance and be more sure if this super event will happen," Moore added, indicating that predictions would improve as time progresses.
What Exactly is a ‘Super El Niño’?
David Phillips, a climatologist from Environment and Climate Change Canada, defined a "super" El Niño as a particularly strong version of the typical El Niño weather pattern. El Niño is characterized by a large high-pressure area in the Pacific that brings warmth. While it doesn’t drastically change weather patterns, it can increase the likelihood of specific weather events such as storms or droughts.
In Canada, a strong El Niño typically means milder winters across the country. The warm water in the Pacific creates conditions that lead to this weather shift. Phillips noted that this could lead to less ice in the Great Lakes next winter, which might increase lake-effect storms in the region.
While the immediate effects of a super El Niño will be felt across Eastern Canada, the overall impact could be more global. Moore and Phillips mentioned that these effects could be more noticeable in regions that tend to have warmer winters. Additionally, Moore added that the West Coast might experience wetter conditions.
Weather Warnings Across Canada Amid Ongoing Winter
Despite these potential changes, Canada is still deep in winter, with multiple weather warnings in effect across the country. Some areas in Newfoundland are under a winter storm warning, along with gusty wind warnings.
In northern Ontario, a snow squall watch has been issued due to an Arctic cold front. Residents there might experience poor visibility in heavy snow. British Columbia is also under a winter storm warning, with gusty winds and heavy snow expected. Some areas in Alberta could see 15 to 25 cm of snow from Tuesday through Wednesday.
Quebec is expecting brief but intense snowfalls, reducing visibility and making travel difficult. Meanwhile, western Manitoba could see significant snowfall, with 10 to 15 cm accumulating by Wednesday. Saskatchewan is also under a special weather statement for snowfall, while the Northwest Territories is facing dangerously cold wind chills, reaching nearly -50°C on Tuesday.
Record-Breaking Heat in the U.S.
To the south, the U.S. is experiencing its own extreme weather. A massive heat dome is causing record-breaking temperatures across 14 states. The heat is expected to be one of the largest heatwaves in American history, possibly surpassing past heatwaves in 2012 and 2021. According to climatologists, over 479 weather stations across the U.S. reported record-breaking heat for March last week.
