Canada’s election race has tightened, but the Liberals still lead slightly. Global News
Canada’s federal election is entering its final week, and the race is now neck and neck. A new poll shows the Liberals are still ahead, but just barely. They now lead the Conservatives by only three points.
The poll shows 41% of voters support the Liberals. The Conservatives are close behind with 38%. That’s a two-point gain for the Conservatives since last week, while Liberal support dropped by one point. The New Democratic Party is at 12%, up one point. The Bloc Quebecois fell to 5% nationally. In Quebec, the Bloc holds 25%. Both the Green Party and the People’s Party have 2% support each.
The gap between the top two parties is within the margin of error. This means the final result could go either way.
Just over half of voters say they want a majority government. But with the race so tight, that’s looking unlikely.
Only two weeks ago, the Liberals were leading by 12 points. That was a big jump for the party. Their boost came after Mark Carney took over as leader. Carney’s leadership helped the Liberals bounce back after trailing behind for years.
The U.S. president’s recent threats against Canada helped the Liberals gain support. Many Canadians feel the Liberals are better at dealing with foreign issues. However, the focus is now shifting to problems at home.
Darrell Bricker from Ipsos says, “The Trump issue is fading. People care more about daily costs and the economy.” These are issues the Conservatives are focusing on. That helps them connect with voters.
The U.S. president has softened his tone recently, especially after speaking with Carney on the phone. But he still says Canada should become part of the U.S.
Carney remains the preferred choice for prime minister. He has 41% support, compared to 36% for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.
Debates last week had mixed results. About one-third of voters said Carney won the English-language debate. Poilievre followed closely with 30%. In the French-language debate, Poilievre came out ahead with 24%. Carney had 18%. Bloc Quebecois leader Yves-François Blanchet was seen as the winner by 12%.
Only a small number of people thought NDP leader Jagmeet Singh won either debate. One-third felt he did worse than expected. Only 10% said he did better.
Despite the Conservatives gaining support, 45% of debate viewers believe the Liberals are gaining the most popularity. Just 29% said the same about the Conservatives. This shows the Liberals still have momentum.
Carney is still viewed as the strongest leader overall. He ranks higher than Poilievre in most areas like managing the economy and dealing with world leaders. But his trust rating has dropped five points to 27%. Belief that he will keep promises is now at 25%, tied with Poilievre.
Poilievre is now seen as more likely to support the middle class. He also gained support on handling tax money but still trails Carney slightly.
Poilievre leads on some negative views. More people see him as having a hidden agenda or being desperate to win.
Voters remain divided. About 46% want to re-elect the Liberals, while 54% want a change. Half of Canadians approve of the current government’s work.
Regionally, the Conservatives are slightly ahead in British Columbia and lead in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. The Liberals lead in other parts of the country. In Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois is ahead of the Conservatives.
