The Peace Tower on Parliament Hill stands tall in Ottawa on Wednesday, December 13, 2023. The Canadian Press
Liberals Gain Strong Lead
The federal Liberals now hold a solid lead over the Conservatives, just as Members of Parliament return to their home ridings for the summer break. Recent numbers show the Liberals at 45.2%, while the Conservatives trail behind at 30.8%. The New Democrats, led for now by Don Davies, are sitting at 12.1%.
This shift comes just two months after a tightly fought election. Though the Liberals won, the Conservatives gained around two dozen new seats and nearly caught up in the popular vote. They finished just three percentage points behind.
What Changed After the Election?
Despite early momentum, Conservative support has dropped steadily. A year ago, they held a strong lead in polls. Now, the tide has turned. According to polling expert Nik Nanos, this decline doesn’t look good for the party. Many working-class voters who once backed Poilievre seem to be drifting toward the NDP.
Nanos noted that in previous elections, the Conservatives enjoyed support similar to past majority governments under leaders like Stephen Harper and Brian Mulroney. That level of support has faded.
Preferred Prime Minister Polls
When asked who they would prefer as prime minister, more than half of those polled — 52.1% — chose Mark Carney. Just 23.2% supported Pierre Poilievre. That’s a sharp drop for Poilievre, who has lost 10 points in this area since the week before the election.
This decline may be linked to his absence from Parliament. Poilievre lost his seat during the election and hasn’t returned to the House of Commons. Nanos said this absence is hurting the Conservatives and helping Carney stand out more.
A Second Chance for Poilievre
Poilievre now has a chance to get back into Parliament. A byelection will take place on August 18 in Alberta’s Battle River—Crowfoot riding. The seat opened up after former MP Damien Kurek stepped down. Kurek resigned just days after the federal election to give Poilievre an opportunity to run again. He officially left his post on June 17.
Poilievre previously served for over 20 years in the Ottawa-area riding of Carleton. This time, he’ll be campaigning in a more rural Alberta area, hoping to return to the House of Commons and rebuild his standing.
